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Breaking into the planet's most popular art institution in broad daylight, taking eight items of invaluable Napoleonic jewellery and disappearing into the city traffic on humble scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, executed for global fame and ensuing Hollywood film treatments.

Experts who study patterns in global cultural theft, however, see the recent robbery at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the latest in a series of quick-hit thefts centered more on the material value of precious stones or materials than the historical importance, continuing a trend that has emerged over the last decade in Europe, Britain and the US. The location, they propose, would have been of secondary concern to the thieves.

“You may ask why criminals who want to steal valuable jewellery are breaking into a globally renowned museum rather than a Cartier store,” said Christopher A Marinello. “It's straightforward: it’s because these days a Cartier store is better protected.”

A spate of aggressive retail store thefts mean that many stores have beefed up their protection in recent years, with security personnel on their premises and merchandise no longer shown overnight. Cultural institutions, meanwhile, look more exposed, partly because of the inherent factor of being public-facing institutions in historic buildings, and also the current economic climate in many developed nations.

“After the pandemic, governments across the globe have cut back on police and the culture sector,” noted Marinello. “With criminals entering the Louvre, it demonstrates how vulnerable our institutions have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the items – including necklaces made up of precious stones and hundreds of gems, the tiara of Empress Eugénie featuring nearly 2,000 diamonds and a hugely valuable diadem once possessed by Napoleon III’s wife that the thieves dropped by the roadside on their way out – has inevitably drawn comparisons with the 1911 theft of the Mona Lisa from the same museum, carried out by the Italian handyman the thief.

More relevant comparisons may be the 2019 theft of valuables from a German institution worth over millions, the theft of a multi-million pound gold toilet from Blenheim Palace the same year, the recent heist of a large gold coin from a European museum or even a series of robberies of sports memorabilia from US mining museums.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as quickly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to remain intact, specialists say, the criminals would struggle to find a buyer. “It's impossible to sell something as immediately identifiable as the Louvre’s jewels on the licit market”, said an art crime researcher of the a relevant organization.

“They are too well-known, especially given the cultural authorities has published photos of the items. Even a private collector or an sales venue would want to see documentation confirming proper ownership before touching such remarkable pieces.”

In the past, museums were often reluctant to announce publicly about the disappearance of famous works of art and would stay silent out of shame. These days, as art thefts are more widely publicised, the keeping and selling of taken items is dangerous for any lawbreaker.

“Taking a famous painting, it has to stay complete or it becomes valueless, and you have to conceive of a scheme to keep it in hiding, maybe by passing it around dangerous individuals,” said Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the risk of an accomplice telling the police to collect a reward.”

For similar reasons, an investigator said it was vanishingly unlikely that the robbery had been commissioned. “Commissioned theft is something from films,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It’s all around the world and in all the media. If you buy this, if you get caught, you go to jail. You can't display it to your friends, you cannot leave it to your family.”

Altering stolen works by melting down or reshaping does lower the value. When it comes to gems, it also comes with considerable risk because contemporary methods give gems a bigger and brighter surface area, and antique-cut stones would either draw unwanted attention or reduce value for a concealment.

Importantly, however, melting down or re-cutting eliminates the proof of the theft. “My guess is that the robbers will try to take the items to locations with gem knowledge like a country, another nation or even as close as Antwerp, and find someone to remove the gems,” suggested Marinello.

The robbery at the Louvre has already raised questions about security measures at the institution, with a unauthorized official review expected to be released next month criticising “considerable” and “persistent” delays in modernizing equipment and noting that security cameras were lacking in multiple areas. But specialists say displaying valuable objects in historic buildings with a constant flow of guests comes with dangers that are impossible to eliminate completely.

“Historic buildings are much harder to protect,” said Erin Thompson. “They often have large accessible windows that allows for criminals to get away, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you can’t fit them with secure windows.”

The most solid security systems for buildings should be designed “as a stronghold”, said Peter Stürmann. “It should include multiple levels to deter intruders.”

Contemporary structures are equipped with advanced external CCTV cameras or integrated seismic detectors that raise alarm about a smashed window in immediately, but historic institutions may be hesitant to alter their exteriors. Laser scanners can be hard to install to stuccoed ceilings. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be turned off during the day as hordes of visitors walk through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which occurred between morning hours local time, was common of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “It's logical why robberies tend to happen at either start or end of day. Frequently when guards rotate and before the museum is full of visitors who effectively act as additional security staff.”

Advances in technology may have introduced new gadgets that can notify more quickly and effectively, but it has also provided robbers new methods with which to bypass protections. In the city, the robbers accessed the museum’s upper level with a vehicle-mounted ladder and breached a window with a battery-powered disc cutter.

An author said the discussion in France about the historic building had primarily centered on visitor management in recent years, and less on protection.

The institution has an in-house team of about fifty permanent emergency personnel, but their mission is mainly to safeguard the artworks from blazes and water damage. “There isn't a quick reaction team,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the safety of the Louvre all depends on political will and money, and currently the nation simply has no resources.”