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At first, Donald Trump appeared to embrace a firm stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After making threats of "serious repercussions" in August in case Putin carried on hindering peace discussions, the former president finally enacted considerable penalties on Russia's primary energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action significantly hindered the Russian leader's ability to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

But, with his latest detailed peace plan for Ukraine, that was drafted by American and Russian diplomats lacking Ukraine's or European participation, the former president has seemingly gone back to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Military Action

This proposal would effectively reward Putin for occupying Ukraine while putting the country's democracy in peril. Although bold statements that "The nation's independence will be upheld", large portions of the proposal in reality weaken that same autonomy. This constitutes a Russian ideal would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate experience, the former president continues to view the war as a simple land disagreement, like ceding Putin a part of Ukrainian land will appease the leader. But, Putin's war is not merely about occupying a damaged area of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to eliminate it so it ceases to acts as an appealing model for the Russia's population of the responsible government that his increasing autocracy denies them.

Border Surrenders

Although keeping in position the currently split oblasts of these areas, the proposal would require the nation to abandon all of Donetsk region. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been failed to occupy in more than a ten years of conflict, this surrender would render Ukraine's defenses severely undermined.

This region is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the fortified protective structures that are a critical obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these positions, leaving Russian forces a clear path to the capital if he later choose to renew the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would enable future hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would mandate the nation to diminish the size of its armed forces from their current large number personnel to a maximum of this lower number. Notably, the plan imposes no such limits on the invading army.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's campaign to portray Ukraine's legitimate administration as Nazis, the proposal states: "All Nazi doctrine and activities must be condemned and forbidden." As if to highlight this element, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a peace deal. However, Trump places no condition that the Russian leader risk his dictatorship by conducting elections in Russia.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the plan makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in regulation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken comparable accords in the past – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of seized areas in the region to the government – how should we trust Putin now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international defense commitments. While the initiative warns of a "immediate joint military response" should Russia resume its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the details include unclear to troubling. The proposal would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent alliance nations from deploying forces on the nation's land, thus preventing the reassurance force, presumptively led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from replenishing his weakened military, rearming, and attacking again.

Global Response

An additional supplementary accord according to sources would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, intentional, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an act of war jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a military response. However unlike a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's most reliable defense against future invasion – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of alliance members, like the US administration, to act through arms to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not