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Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference obstructed from the top if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.