Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned negotiations on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House without results

The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.

Reduced Influence

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

Trump often boasts about his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in the summer produced little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.

The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.

Shelley English
Shelley English

A passionate traveler and writer with over a decade of experience documenting unique cultural encounters worldwide.